ANALYSIS: The anatomy of a stunner in Scarborough Southwest

Before we get to the stunning nuts and bolts of what transpired at a Scarborough high school on Saturday afternoon, let’s pause to remember an important fact: no matter how you feel about Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, and he seems to inspire some pretty big feelings, losing a nomination race by 19 votes must be agonizing.

So, seeing Erskine-Smith, after it was announced that he had lost to Ahsanul Hafiz, try to keep a smile on his face as he consoled his supporters, some of whom were in tears, took guts. We should acknowledge that.

I’ll admit it’s unusual to focus first on the loser of a vote, but this was no usual race. Erskine-Smith pulled one of the riskiest moves in Ontario politics in some time. Despite holding a House of Commons seat he was at no risk of losing, the MP for Beaches—East York saw an opportunity to bring the Ontario Liberals back to a more competitive place at Queen’s Park. He went for it.

His problem was that the Liberals already hold his riding provincially (the MPP is Mary-Margaret McMahon), meaning if Erskine-Smith wanted to take a run at Queen’s Park, he’d have to find another place to plant his flag. When the Ontario NDP’s deputy leader Doly Begum bolted for federal politics (switching to the Liberals), her Scarborough Southwest seat opened up. Erskine-Smith figured this was his moment to leap at a riding that was right next door.

But almost from the get-go, Erskine-Smith’s candidacy seemed to […] This is an excerpt. Read the full article now on TVO.org.